Menene halin farashin albarkatun kasa na masana'antu a 2021?

 Yunƙurin yana gabatar da halaye guda uku

Wannan annobar ta shafi 2020, tun daga rabin rabin shekara, nau'ikan kayan masana'antu da na tallafi sun nuna ci gaba gaba ɗaya, kuma farashin nau'ikan samfuran sun sha samun ci gaba sosai. Zuwa 2021, bisa ga mahimman kafofin masana'antu, farashin kayan ɗanyen har yanzu yana kan babban matakin a farkon shekara. Tare da ƙaddamar da sabon rigakafin kambi na duniya, yanayin tattalin arziki na cikin gida da na ƙasashen waje zai karɓa, kuma farashin albarkatun ƙasa na masana'antu zai ragu a hankali A cikin 2021, yanayin farashi ya kamata ya nuna na farko. Yanayin yayi ƙasa.

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1. Daga 2018 zuwa 2020, farashin kayayyakin masana'antu zai tashi ta yadda yake juyawa

A watan Disamba, kayayyakin masana'antar cikin gida sun tashi kamar bakan gizo, kuma farashin tagulla da ƙarfe duk suna kan sabon matsayi a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Dogaro da ci gaba da haɓakar Index na Manajan Saya (PMI) a watan Nuwamba, yana nuna cewa buƙatar tattalin arzikin yanzu tana da ƙarfi. Har yaushe ne haɓakar da masana'antar ke yi a yanzu za ta ɗore, kuma yaya kuke kallon canje-canje a farashin kayayyakin masana'antar a shekara mai zuwa? Tallafin ƙaruwar farashin kayayyakin masana'antu a wannan shekara zai haɗa da dawo da buƙatun cikin gida da na ƙetare da ƙarancin ƙarfin samar da ƙetare, gami da manyan ma'adanai na ƙetare (ma'adinan ƙarfe da tagulla). ) Ya rage samarwa, kuma karfin narkar da kasashen waje bai kiyaye ba.

Dalilin karin farashin kayayyakin masana'antu a cikin shekarar 2020 shine rashin daidaito na wadatar duniya da buƙata a ƙarƙashin tasirin annobar. A cikin 2021, bayan an shawo kan annobar sosai, dangantakar dake tsakanin samarwa da buƙata bai kamata ya zama mai tsauri kamar na shekarar da ta gabata ba. A cikin lokaci na gaba, farashin zai faɗi sannu a hankali. Idan aka yi la'akari da sauye-sauye masu zuwa a farashin kayayyakin masana'antu daga 2018 zuwa 2020, ƙafafun da ke bin tsarin, daga ƙananan ƙarfe zuwa makamashi, sun kasance cikin da'irar kayayyakin masana'antu.

2. Halayen tashin farashin kayan masarufi na masana'antu

Idan aka yi la’akari da aikin ƙididdigar farashin masana'antun ƙasar Sin (PPI), farashin kayayyakin masana'antu yana da ƙarfi a duniya. PPI ta China ta fi dacewa da canjin canjin farashin shigar da kayayyaki da na makamashi da karafa a duniya, wanda ke bukatar hangen nesa a duniya. Farashin kayan abu don kayayyakin masana'antu.

Ta mahangar bangaren samarda kayayyaki, sabon annobar kambi ya yi tasiri matuka kuma ya sauya tsarin tsarin masana'antun duniya, tare da samar da kayayyakin da ke can kasa zuwa China, amma sake fasalin tsarin masana'antar gaba daya zai kawo tsadar kayan masarufi, da kuma wadatar duniya. tsarin kayan masarufin masana'antu ya fi karkata zuwa ga jama'a, da zarar tasirin sabon masarauta ya shafi yankuna daban-daban kuma tasirinsu na samarwa ya shafi, zai shafi farashin albarkatun masana'antar a gefe.

Daga ɓangaren buƙatu, sabon annobar kambi hakika ya “ƙirƙira” sabon buƙata, kuma godiya ga manyan manufofin kuɗi da ƙididdigar tattalin arziki na tattalin arziki daban-daban, yawan kuɗin kuɗi na mazauna ba shi da kyau, kuma ana iya samun buƙata .

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Wannan zagaye na tashin farashin kayayyakin masana'antu ya gabatar da halaye guda uku:

1. Farashin kayan masarufi sun tashi sosai-lokaci-lokaci. Akwai ra'ayi cewa karuwar kwanan nan a farashin kayayyakin masana'antu yana da alaƙa da yanayin sanyi na hunturu da ƙarar dumamar ɗumi. Idan kuka kalli lokaci guda a cikin tarihi, hakika masana'antun masana'antu zasu sami ƙaruwar yanayi a cikin watan Disamba, amma zamu iya gani daga ƙaruwar wata zuwa farashin masana'antun masana'antun Nanhua cewa ƙaruwar wata zuwa 8,8% a cikin watan Disamba ya wuce matsakaicin tarihi na 1.2%, yana nuna karuwar da ta wuce yanayi. .

2. Farashin wasu kayayyakin masana'antun sun kai matsayin tarihi. Farashin nau'ikan kayayyakin masana'antu daban-daban sun tashi. Idan aka duba Index na Kayayyakin Kayayyakin Nan gaba, ƙididdigar ƙarfe tana da mafi girman darajar farashin da mafi girman ƙimar farashi. A cikin ma'aunin ƙarfe, ƙarfe na ƙarfe yana da ƙaruwa mafi girma, sai kuma jan ƙarfe.

3. Karin farashin albarkatun kasa ya fi na tsohuwar masana'anta. Muna amfani da farashin sayan manyan kayan cikin PMI don yin banbanci da tsohon farashin masana'anta da canza shi zuwa shekara-shekara. Kamar yadda ake gani daga jadawalin da ke ƙasa, tun daga watan Mayu, ƙarin farashin albarkatun ƙasa ya ci gaba da kasancewa sama da farashin tsohuwar masana'anta.

3. Yanayin farashi na kayan masarufi na duk shekara na 2021 yayi girma sannan yayi ƙasa

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Ruwan sanyi na hunturu yana zuwa, haɗe da zuwan Bikin Bazara, ƙarfe na ginin gida ya shiga lokacin hutu, kuma yanayin annobar gida da na waje ya sake zama mai tsanani. Har yanzu akwai wasu dalilan da ba su da tabbas ko farfadowar tattalin arziki a farkon rabin 2021 zai ci gaba kamar yadda aka tsara. Idan maye gurbin kwayar cutar ba ta shafi tasirin allurar ba, kasuwar karafa ta kasashen waje za ta kara yawan bukatu a wannan shekarar, wanda hakan zai samar da yanayi na karuwar fitattun karafan cikin gida.

Kowa ya san cewa kayan ɗanɗano ba za su iya hawa da tashi a kowane lokaci ba. Akwai lokuta koyaushe da zasu faɗi baya. Abin da ake kira babba farko sannan kuma ƙasa. A farkon farawa, farashin kayan ɗanɗano kamar su baƙin ƙarfe, kwal, jan ƙarfe, aluminium, da gilashi suna tashi. Hawan albarkatun kasa zai daure. Zai shafi farashin kayayyakin masana'antu da kayan masarufi. Lokacin da farashi ya tashi, hauhawar farashi zai yi jinkiri kuma yayi tsada, kuma dole ne ku sarrafa shi.

La'akari da dalilai daban-daban a gida da waje, akwai babban fata ga farfadowar tattalin arziƙi da kuma aikin kayan masarufin masana'antu a cikin 2021. A karkashin tsammanin manyan ƙasashen tattalin arzikin duniya za su ci gaba da kula da manufofin saukaka kuɗi, ainihin buƙata a kasuwar jan ƙarfe za ta ci gaba da tsammanin a cikin kwata 1-2. Girma a tsaye. Koyaya, ana iya saukar da farashin tagulla a rabin na biyu na shekara.

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Post lokaci: Jun-11-2021